Multi-criteria analysis of economic complexity transition in emerging economies: The case of Paraguay

Like many emerging economies, the productive structure of the Paraguayan economy is not complex. It relies extensively on low value-added activities in the primary sector such as agriculture and cattle ranching. These activities have a lower return in terms of economic and social benefits than other potential productive activities and do not contribute to increasing capability accumulation. In this paper we present a tool to support the identification of strategic sectors and products which if taken advantage of, could leverage development through the accumulation of productive capabilities. Our guiding question is: Which productive sectors should be promoted to foster economic development in Paraguay through a transition towards a more complex economy? To answer this question, we use concepts from the Economic Complexity theory to identify new products and cluster them based on the Product Space methodology for the determination of potential products and combine it with the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for multicriteria analysis considering multiple criteria. In doing so, our proposed methodology contributes to both the Economic Complexity and the AHP literature. Through this combination, we tackle the multiplicity of juxtaposed criteria, which should be considered at the prioritization stage in the crafting of economic restructuring measures according to the country's capabilities. Our evaluation showed that the combination of the approaches is useful, and for Paraguay's case, it helped identify sectors, which, if promoted by policymakers, could help boost economic development through complexity and capability accumulation.     

Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions

Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions.     

Real income convergence and the patterns of financial integration in the EU

We analyse real income convergence among the EU28 countries throughout 1995–2017 and the relationship with the convergence patterns of financial systems. We apply the nonlinear latent factor model of Phillips and Sul (2007, 2009) to real incomes and the IMF financial development indices for financial markets and financial institutions (Svirydzenka, 2016), and identify convergence clubs endogenously. We have several results. First, income disparities narrowed significantly over the last twenty years; yet, the growth convergence process lost momentum triggered by the global financial crisis and countries legacies shaped up asymmetries that have crystallised. Second, countries' financial systems exhibit high fragmentation, especially for financial markets, with the new EU member states at a lower financial development, confirming the existence of a two-tier Europe. Overall, the convergence patterns for real incomes and financial development are strongly correlated. Finally, the financial structure matters and market-oriented economies feature higher long-run growth, indicating the need to implement pan-European policy actions that increase the opportunities of risk diversification, enhance capital raising and channel large-scale financing to firms.     

Economic freedom and bilateral direct investment

Economic freedom (freedom from the intervention of government) is essential for doing business, so economic freedom of both the home country and the host country are important for bilateral foreign direct investment. However, though some literature has investigated the role of host country's economic freedom in bilateral direct investment, no literature has studied the role of home country's economic freedom. This paper has studied this issue in a gravity model with a sample of 155 countries. This paper has also employed some effective estimation techniques of gravity model to incorporate the zero observations and adopted quantile regression method. The findings indicate that economic freedom of both the home country and the host country are positively correlated with bilateral direct investment, and the economic freedom of home country has even stronger explanatory power for foreign direct investment. Hence, promoting the economic freedom may encourage more outward foreign direct investment than inward direct investment.     

社会网络视角下的创客资本研究

揭示创客资本的内涵与特征，有助于深层次挖掘创客与经济社会发展之间的关系。运用关键词共现、社会网络分析和扎根理论方法，对148篇文献、21位由创客与众创空间负责人等构成研究对象的访谈资料和网络文本资料展开分析。社会网络分析发现互联网、数字经济、分享经济等是创客发展的重要驱动力，创客可借助众创空间社会网络跳出时空局限，运用网络资源参与大众创新活动，并与社会网络形成价值共创关系，推动协同创新和平台生态系统构建；扎根理论分析结果表明，创意制造、开放协同、网络共生、边际非稀缺是创客资本的4个核心特征，并印证了社会网络分析结果。基于上述分析结果，进一步基于社会网络理论界定了创客资本的内涵，提出未来需要深度挖掘创客资本与网络场景之间的交互机制及其结果效应。     

科技企业孵化器何以激活区域创新——风险投资与孵化基金的中介作用

完善创新生态系统、提升区域创新能力是我国科技企业孵化器建设的重要目标。基于2013-2018年中国（内地）30个省份面板数据，采用面板数据模型实证检验科技企业孵化器是否促进了区域创新能力提升，并基于中介效应模型探讨风险投资和孵化基金在其中的间接作用。结果发现：①科技企业孵化器建设显著提升了区域创新水平，但主要增加的是实用新型和外观设计专利申请授权数总量，对发明专利申请授权数并没有显著促进作用。上述结果在剔除直辖市样本、采用随机效应模型及空间计量模型的稳健性检验后依然成立；②通过中介效应模型检验发现，区域风险投资和孵化基金集聚效应是科技企业孵化器影响区域创新水平的主要机制；③科技企业孵化器对区域创新的影响在不同区域间差异较大，在东部地区的创新激励效应更加显著，而且政策工具强度对科技企业孵化器与区域创新水平的关系具有正向调节作用。     

长江经济带人才集聚水平测度及时空演变研究——基于价值链视角

基于价值链视角，构建涵盖人才资源在区域空间层面集聚生成、地区配置、效能产出3个维度在内的区域人才集聚水平评价指标体系，采用专家咨询AHP-信息熵组合赋权法构建综合评价模型和耦合协调度模型，对2010—2018年长江经济带沿线省市人才集聚水平进行测度与时空演化特征分析。结果表明，就长江经济带整体而言，考察期内地区人才集聚水平总体呈现逐年上升态势，但仍处于低水平状态；沿线省市人才集聚水平差异显著，缩小趋势渐缓，整体呈现局部高水平、全局低效率的不利境况；各省市人才集聚水平关键维度的耦合协调度整体呈显著波动递增态势，但内部耦合协调度存在不平衡发展问题，影响地区人才集聚水平整体提升。为提升长江经济带人才集聚水平，推进沿线地区协调发展，需强化区域人才合作机制，采取差别化精准策略破解沿线地区人才集聚低水平、不协调的短板因素。     

经济政策不确定性、区域经济复杂度与企业创新行为

构建包含宏观经济政策不确定性指标、区域经济复杂度和上市公司特征变量“宏观-区域-企业”的实证面板数据，在理论分析经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为作用机理的基础上，以区域经济复杂度为视角，对经济政策不确定性与企业创新行为作用机制进行再检验。研究发现：经济政策不确定性对企业创新存在正向激励综合效应，同时，区域经济复杂度不仅能够促进企业创新行为，而且能够强化经济政策不确定性对企业创新行为的影响即抑制负向作用而强化正向作用。考虑内生性，通过替换核心变量检验稳健性以保证研究结论可靠，并且，研究企业特征发现，高科技企业和非高科技企业存在差异。     

Institutional quality and corporate financing decisions around the world

We investigate the influence of the recent comprehensive institutional quality dimensions of Karolyi (2015), such as market capacity, operational efficiency, foreign accessibility, corporate transparency, legal protection, and political stability, on financing decisions of firms across 56 countries between 2000 and 2015. We find that stronger institutional quality or lower fundamental risks in a country ease firms' access to long-term debt, and equity financing. We attribute our results to institutional environments influencing financing decisions by shaping the severity of market frictions, such as agency conflicts and information asymmetry, and transaction costs. As a result, we conclude that any improvement in a country's institutional environment will boost firms' access to long-term financing, and thus longer-term investments that promote countries' economic growth will be more feasible. Our findings are robust to potential endogeneity issues.     

经济政策不确定性与企业员工配置——来自沪深上市公司的经验证据

企业员工配置是企业内部管理的重要一环,经济政策不确定性是否会影响企业员工配置?本文以员工数量衡量企业员工配置,利用2010-2018年沪深A股上市企业数据和经济政策不确定性指数建立面板数据模型,考察经济政策不确定性对企业员工配置的影响,实证研究发现:经济政策不确定性会显著增加企业员工配置,且该影响经更换变量、调整样本容量以及内生性处理后依旧显著,该反应在还债能力较弱、盈利能力较差、股权制衡度较高、地区经济发展水平较低的企业中更为明显。文章的研究结论对于企业管理和宏观经济管控有一定的参考价值。